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    • How Canadians' fears about the economy translate to their spending habits

    Canadians are tightening their belts this holiday season, spending less overall than they did at the same time last year while worrying about how they will fare financially in 2024, according to new data from Nanos Research.

    According to the Nanos survey, more than half of respondents said they plan on spending less this holiday season while about four per cent said they will likely spend more.

    "That's like 13 times more likely to spend less than more, but the kicker is the trend line. Compared to last year, about 43 per cent of Canadians said that they're going to spend less. And you can see that that's basically up nine points over the last year. So, belt tightening," Nanos Research founder Nik Nanos said on the latest episode of CTV News Trend Line.

    Survey data also shows about 42 per cent of Canadians say they’ll spend about the same amount as they did last year, down slightly from 46 per cent in 2022. The proportion of Canadians who said they'll spend more this holiday season decreased from one in 10 in 2022 to fewer than one in 20 in 2023.

    LESS UNDER THE TREE THIS YEAR

    "What's interesting is that when we unpacked what they're going to be spending less on, it looks like one of the things that's kind of a wash is food at home. They're probably spending about the same because I think it's like 23 per cent are going to spend more on food at home, 27 per cent—less, and the rest, about the same," Nanos said.

    Nearly three in five (58 per cent of) Canadians said they will be spending less on going out to social events this year, while four per cent said they will spend more and 36 per cent said they'll spend about the same, according to Nanos. Additionally, more than half of Canadians said they would be spending less on gifts this year compared to last year while four per cent said they'll spend more and 41 per cent said about the same.

    "I think the key takeaway here is that … the food at home is okay. So we'll be at home with our families. We'll be having our holiday meals. Those holiday meals will be as good as they were last year. But in terms of going out and spending on gifts, (we're) much more likely to be trimming the budget this year compared to last holiday season," Nanos said.

    He added for many there may be fewer gifts under the tree this year, and survey data shows more Canadians are concerned about their economic future as well.

    BELT TIGHTENING IN THE NEW YEAR

    Nanos said according to survey data, Canadians appear to be worried about 2024 and what might happen in the economy. Data from March 2022 shows about half of respondents said inflation wouldn't have an impact on them. Nanos said that number has dropped to 34 per cent as of the latest data.

    "Now, a majority of Canadians say that inflation is a problem and it's having a materially negative impact on their spending, whether it's for major items or other types of items," Nanos said.

    The latest Nanos data shows 19 per cent of Canadians said they have had to cancel a major purchase because of price increases, up from eight per cent in March 2022, while 16 per cent said it's become difficult to afford basic necessities, down from 21 per cent in March 2022.

    Nanos data also shows 25 per cent of Canadians said they have had to cancel a major purchase and basic necessities have become difficult to afford, up from 20 per cent in March 2022.

    Older Canadians (aged 55 and older) are more likely to say that inflation hasn't been a major problem for them than their younger counterparts.

    "The other thing is, people are still worried about paying for housing, significantly. About one out of every three Canadians are worried or somewhat worried about paying for housing in the next 30 days," Nanos said on Trend Line.

    Data shows this is a slight increase compared to 2022, however it remains significantly higher than numbers from 2020 and 2021.

    Younger Canadians are more likely to be worried about housing costs than Canadians older than 55. Forty-seven per cent of people aged 18 to 34 and 41 per cent of those aged 35 to 54 said they are worried about paying housing costs in the next month, compared to 20 per cent of those 55 years and older.

    "(It) speaks to the situation where young people are just, you know, probably not going out as much—staying in—but also more likely to be worried about: 'Hey, how am I going to pay for housing in the next 30 days?' So, pretty dour and worried. We have a significant proportion of Canadians who are just outright worried about inflation and paying for housing," Nanos said.

    HOW WILL THINGS FARE IN 2024?

    Asked to look ahead to the new year, Nanos said to pay attention to the performance of the economy.

    "That's going to have a material impact on how people feel about the government—the Liberal government in Ottawa—and potentially also Pierre Poilievre," Nanos said.

    He argues if the economy remains flat or dips into a mild recession, it's likely Canadians will see a continuation of negative trends because people will still be struggling to pay their bills and "they'll be very frustrated" and "looking for someone to blame and to punish," typically those in power.

    "So, if we see a continuation of worry about paying for housing, if we see a continuation of people cutting back on spending, that will be bad news for the Liberals. Conversely, that will likely be good news for the Conservatives, because they will be tapping into … this cost of living stuff, and affordability. It's the right thing that Canadians want to hear about at the right time. So watch out for the economy, if the economy does better in 2024, that will be a lifeline to the Justin Trudeau Liberals."  

    Watch the full episode of Trend Line in our video player at the top of this article. You can also listen in our audio player below, or wherever you get your podcasts. The next episode comes out Wednesday, Jan. 9, 2024.

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